摘要：美国展览业研究中心（CEIR）发布了新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）未来几个月对美国B2B会展业影响的初步预测。数据是根据行业内主办方向美国展览业研究中心提供的活动取消情况得出的。

　　150个B2B活动取消，损失18亿美元

　　CEIR报告称，每年大约有9400个B2B展会在美国举办。数据显示，会展业在2019年对美国GDP的总影响为1,010亿美元，高于2018年的970亿美元。截至2020年3月15日，已有50个B2B活动宣布取消, 而且之后的几天每天都有新的取消通知。这50场活动损失总计520万平方英尺净展位面积和主办方约合3.18亿美元的收入。考虑到参展商和参会者的直接支出，经济损失高达18亿美元。

　　25月15日前50%-80%的活动或将取消

　　每年在3月1日至5月15日之间在美国大约有2500个B2B活动举办。CEIR认为，其中约50%至80%的活动已经取消或可能在未来几周内取消。根据2020年3月15日的取消报告，CEIR计算出这将导致4100万到6500万平方英尺净展位面积和主办方约合23亿到36亿美元的主办方收入的损失。再加上参展商和参会者的直接支出，CEIR估计经济损失总额高达140亿至220亿美元。

　　艾伦·肖博士指出（CEIR经济学家、全球经济咨询协会首席经济学家）

　　“现阶段来看，会展业的衰退会呈现为行业规模的一次性收缩，应为这只是一个暂时性的事件，我们预计会展业将在2021年全面复苏“。要了解更多艾伦·肖博士关于COVID-19对市场影响的深入分析，请点击这里阅读他的相关文章。

以下为英文原稿

　　DALLAS, 18 March 2020 – Today, the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) released preliminary projections of the impact the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the U.S. business-to-business (B2B) exhibition industry in the coming months. These calculations were derived from cancellations reported to the organization by exhibition and event organizers.

　　“We have been closely monitoring the progress of COVID-19 in anticipation of how it will impact our industry for weeks,” noted CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP, CAE, CEM. “Data collection and analysis takes time and we are pleased to have enough information now to answer some of the questions we have been receiving.”

　　“This information is incredibly helpful for communicating to federal legislators the economic impact of the B2B exhibitions industry,” added 2020 Chairperson of the CEIR Board of Directors Carrie Ferenac. “The information is being shared with industry associations who are advocating on the importance of trade shows to the U.S. economy, and the tremendous negative impact COVID-19 has had on organizer companies, venues and service providers, and to the people they employ.”

　　CEIR reports that there are about 9,400 B2B exhibitions held in the U.S. annually. The updated figure for the industry’s total impact on the U.S. GDP is $101 billion in 2019, up from $97 billion in 2018.

　　As of 15 March 2020, 50 B2B events have announced their cancellations. Notable events that have canceled include:

　　Inspired Home Show by the International Housewares Association (over 800,000 net square feet [NSF]);

　　HIMSS (Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society) Global Health Conference and Exhibition (over 600,000 NSF);

　　ASD (Affordable Shopping Destination) Market Week (about 600,000 NSF); and

　　Natural Products Expo West (nearly 600,000 NSF).

　　These 50 events amounted to a total loss of 5.2 million NSF and $318 million in show organizer revenue. Taking into account direct spending of exhibitors and attendees, the loss to the economy stands at $1.8 billion.

　　New cancellation announcements are appearing daily, which is likely to increase with the recommendation made on 15 March 2020 by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to cancel events that will attract 50 or more people for the next eight weeks. Readers should also note that simply counting the announced cancellations published in media reports significantly underestimates the actual number of cancellations, since the cancellation of many small- to medium-sized events does not typically attract media attention. This is especially true for events held in hotels.

　　There are about 2,500 B2B events held between 1 March and 15 May each year. CEIR believes that about 50% to 80% of those events have already canceled or will likely cancel in the coming weeks. Based on the cancellations reported as of 15 March 2020, CEIR calculates this will result in a loss of 41 to 65 million NSF and $2.3 billion to $3.6 billion in show organizer revenue. Combined with direct spending by exhibitors and attendees, CEIR estimates the total loss to the economy to be $14 billion to $22 billion.

　　“At this point, the decline in the exhibition industry is a one-off retraction of the industry’s size,” said CEIR Economist Allen Shaw, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Global Economic Consulting Associates, Inc. “Since this is a transitory event, we expect a full recovery for the exhibition industry in 2021.”

　　For a more in-depth analysis by Dr. Shaw on the market effects of COVID-19, read his article here.

　　About CEIR

　　The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) serves to advance the growth, awareness and value of exhibitions and other face-to-face marketing events by producing and delivering knowledge-based research tools that enable stakeholder organizations to enhance their ability to meet current and emerging customer needs, improve their business performance and strengthen their competitive position. For additional information, visit www.ceir.org.

（来源：IAEE公众号）